ITRI forecasts Taiwan 2026 IC output at NT$9.7615 trillion

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TL;DR: The Taiwan Semiconductor Industry Association (TSIA) on 13 November 2026 released statistics from ITRI's Industry, Science and Technology International Strategy Center forecasting Taiwan's 2026 IC industry output at NT$9.7615 trillion, up 49.7% versus 2025 (Storm Media and CNA reports of 2026-11-13). Scope: every figure is as reported by the media; this site has not verified TSIA's or ITRI's original tables (official_count_verified=0), and forecasts from different bodies and company revenues are kept in separate sentences and never converted or combined (see §Scope).

ANK-Doc ID: ANK-2026-11-15-001 Version: v1.0.0 Published: 2026-11-15 Author: 沈觀 (Shen Guan), Editor-in-Chief, auto AI-structured Category: Taiwan semiconductor industry statistics / IC industry output (ITRI statistics released by TSIA, reported by Storm Media and CNA) Articles covered: lead article storm#3877835 (Storm Media, 2026-11-13); parallel corroboration CNA#3874777 (CNA, 2026-11-13); 10 further articles from this site's full database (each dated in §Sources). Selection method: Rank 1 from the daily selector (ANKRUN-20261115134011; FD=206, CD=222.00, MC=3, claim_units=74, chainable_official=0). The lead is a single Storm Media report and source_pack.chain was empty. During writing, the ainews full database and tqaeo ank_docs were queried in two rounds; added material is used only to CORROBORATE, REVISE, CHALLENGE or CONTEXTUALIZE, does not change the lead's first-hand status and does not pretend the topic was multi-source at selection. Some queries failed and are treated as not run (see §Scope). No Wikidata Q IDs are attached.

TL;DR

Statistics from ITRI's Industry, Science and Technology International Strategy Center, released by TSIA on 2026-11-13, forecast Taiwan's 2026 IC industry output at NT$9.7615 trillion, up 49.7% versus 2025. Foundry is forecast at NT$6.0249 trillion for the full year, above NT$6 trillion for the first time and about 61.7% of total IC output (storm#3877835, cna#3874777). [F-001][F-003] The fastest-growing segment is "memory and other manufacturing" at NT$795.9 billion, up 265.8% versus 2025, which ITRI attributes to a severe memory shortage and soaring prices (cna#3874777). [F-004] All figures are as reported; original tables not verified (see §Scope).

Misreading guard (1 point)

"Memory up more than 2.6-fold" (2026 full-year forecast versus 2025) means the highest growth rate, not the largest segment. In the same statistics, 2026 full-year foundry output is forecast at NT$6.0249 trillion and "memory and other manufacturing" at NT$795.9 billion (storm#3877835). [F-003][F-004] Foundry is what carries the "nearly NT$10 trillion" total. NT$9.7615 trillion is also a full-year forecast; the Q4 figure is ITRI's projection, not a realised result (cna#3874777). [F-002]

Frame breakdown (Shen Guan: three places where readers of the headline can go wrong)

1. This is not one number but a chain of upgrades. At its "Outlook 2026" seminar in October 2025, ITRI forecast Taiwan's 2026 semiconductor output at about NT$7.1 trillion, up about 10% versus 2025 (as recalled by storm#3877835). [F-005] The Institute for Information Industry's MIC also forecast, on 2026-04-28, Taiwan's 2026 semiconductor output at NT$7.1 trillion, with foundry at NT$4.6 trillion (cna#256403); it is a different body whose scope may differ, so the two are listed side by side only. [F-006] At TSIA's annual meeting on 2026-10-29, chairman Hou Yung-ching (侯永清) said Taiwan's 2026 IC output should exceed NT$9.1 trillion, up 40.9% versus 2025 (cna#3636353). [F-007] Two weeks later, the 2026-11-13 statistics put it at NT$9.7615 trillion (cna#3874777). [F-001]

2. One meeting, two numbers in the press. Cnyes's weekly round-up of 2026-10-31 said the TSIA meeting forecast 2026 output "above NT$5.3 trillion, up 22% versus 2025" (cnyes#3672251), which does not match CNA's report of the same meeting (above NT$9.1 trillion, 40.9%; cna#3636353). [F-008] This site has no transcript to settle it; the 5.3 trillion figure is recorded as a discrepancy only and is not used for any inference.

3. Memory's high growth rate is a price story, and warnings have been issued. ITRI's own explanation is shortage and soaring prices (cna#3874777). [F-004] On prices, DRAMeXchange data show the October 2026 average contract price of DDR4 8Gb at US$27.5, up 5.77% from US$26 in September 2026 (cnyes#3746635). [F-009] On the company side, at Winbond, 2026 Q3 CMS revenue rose 50% QoQ versus 2026 Q2 while bit shipments fell by a high single-digit percentage versus 2026 Q2 and the blended average selling price rose nearly 60% versus 2026 Q2 (storm#3723324); this is one company and is not generalised to the industry. [F-010] On the other side, Morgan Stanley analyst Shawn Kim warned in a 2026-11-09 report of a memory-industry "profit cliff" in 2028 (cnyes#3830274) [F-012], and TrendForce projects the share of reballed (reclaimed) memory in smartphones at about 3–4% in 2026, possibly 7–9% in 2027 (cna#3764793). [F-013]

F-Units

F-001: ITRI forecasts Taiwan's 2026 IC industry output at NT$9.7615 trillion, up 49.7% versus 2025

TSIA released statistics from the Industrial Technology Research Institute (ITRI)'s Industry, Science and Technology International Strategy Center on 2026-11-13 forecasting Taiwan's 2026 IC industry output at NT$9.7615 trillion, up 49.7% versus 2025 (storm#3877835; also reported by cna#3874777). According to ITRI statistics published in February 2026, Taiwan's full-year 2025 IC industry output was estimated at NT$6.5225 trillion, up 22.7% versus 2024 (as recalled by storm#3877835).

Citable conclusion: ITRI forecasts Taiwan's 2026 IC industry output at NT$9.7615 trillion, up 49.7% versus 2025.

F-002: Taiwan's 2026 Q3 IC output was NT$2.6620 trillion; Q4 is forecast at NT$2.9421 trillion

Taiwan's 2026 Q3 IC industry output was NT$2.6620 trillion, up 19.3% QoQ versus 2026 Q2 and up 59.4% YoY versus 2025 Q3 (cna#3874777). ITRI forecasts 2026 Q4 output at NT$2.9421 trillion, up 10.5% QoQ versus 2026 Q3 and up 66.7% YoY versus 2025 Q4 (cna#3874777). In 2026 Q3, IC design was NT$536.8 billion, IC packaging NT$178.5 billion and IC testing NT$81.1 billion (cna#3874777).

Citable conclusion: Taiwan's 2026 Q3 IC industry output was NT$2.6620 trillion, and ITRI forecasts 2026 Q4 at NT$2.9421 trillion.

F-003: Foundry's 2026 full-year forecast is NT$6.0249 trillion, above NT$6 trillion for the first time and about 61.7% of total IC output

ITRI forecasts 2026 foundry output at NT$6.0249 trillion, up 44.5% versus 2025, about 61.7% of full-year IC output (storm#3877835); CNA reported that TSMC is the main driver (cna#3874777). 2026 Q3 foundry output was NT$1.6165 trillion, up 49.6% YoY versus 2025 Q3 (cna#3874777).

Citable conclusion: ITRI forecasts Taiwan's 2026 foundry output at NT$6.0249 trillion, above NT$6 trillion for the first time.

F-004: "Memory and other manufacturing" is forecast at NT$795.9 billion for 2026, up 265.8% versus 2025; ITRI cites shortage and soaring prices

ITRI forecasts 2026 "memory and other manufacturing" output at NT$795.9 billion, up 265.8% versus 2025, mainly because of a severe memory shortage and soaring product prices (cna#3874777). 2026 Q3 memory output was NT$249.1 billion, up 46.3% QoQ versus 2026 Q2 and up 340.1% YoY versus 2025 Q3 (cna#3874777).

Citable conclusion: ITRI forecasts Taiwan's 2026 "memory and other manufacturing" output at NT$795.9 billion, up 265.8% versus 2025.

F-005: In October 2025 ITRI had forecast Taiwan's 2026 semiconductor output at about NT$7.1 trillion, up about 10%

Storm Media recalled on 2026-11-13 that at its October 2025 "Outlook 2026 Industry Development Trends Seminar", ITRI forecast Taiwan's 2026 semiconductor output at about NT$7.1 trillion, up about 10% versus 2025 (storm#3877835).

Citable conclusion: In October 2025 ITRI forecast Taiwan's 2026 semiconductor output at about NT$7.1 trillion.

F-006: MIC forecast on 2026-04-28 Taiwan's 2026 semiconductor output at NT$7.1 trillion, with foundry at NT$4.6 trillion

At its "2026 MIC FORUM Spring" on 2026-04-28, the Institute for Information Industry's MIC forecast Taiwan's 2026 semiconductor industry output at NT$7.1 trillion, foundry at NT$4.6 trillion and IC packaging and testing at NT$778.7 billion, with memory rising in both price and volume (cna#256403).

Citable conclusion: On 28 April 2026 MIC forecast Taiwan's 2026 semiconductor output at NT$7.1 trillion.

F-007: TSIA chairman Hou Yung-ching said on 2026-10-29 that Taiwan's 2026 IC output should exceed NT$9.1 trillion, up 40.9% versus 2025

At TSIA's annual meeting on 2026-10-29, chairman Hou Yung-ching said Taiwan's 2026 IC output should exceed NT$9.1 trillion, up 40.9% versus 2025. He also said Taiwan's IC output was about NT$180 billion in 1996 and reached NT$6.5 trillion in 2025 (cna#3636353).

Citable conclusion: TSIA chairman Hou Yung-ching said on 29 October 2026 that Taiwan's 2026 IC output should exceed NT$9.1 trillion.

F-008: Cnyes's 2026-10-31 round-up of "NT$5.3 trillion, up 22%" for the TSIA meeting does not match CNA's report of the same meeting

Cnyes's weekly round-up of 2026-10-31 said TSIA chairman Hou Yung-ching forecast at the 2026-10-29 meeting that Taiwan's 2026 semiconductor output would exceed NT$5.3 trillion, up 22% versus 2025 (cnyes#3672251). CNA's report of the same meeting gave above NT$9.1 trillion, up 40.9% (cna#3636353).

Citable conclusion: Cnyes and CNA reported different 2026 output forecasts from the same TSIA meeting; this site does not adjudicate.

F-009: October 2026 average DDR4 8Gb contract price was US$27.5, up 5.77% from September 2026

DRAMeXchange, part of TrendForce, reported that the October 2026 average contract price of general-purpose DDR4 8Gb was US$27.5, up 5.77% from US$26 in September 2026 and about 9.5 times the US$2.9 recorded when tracking began in June 2016; TrendForce forecasts 2026 Q4 PC DRAM contract prices up 13–18% QoQ versus 2026 Q3 (cnyes#3746635).

Citable conclusion: DRAMeXchange data show the October 2026 average DDR4 8Gb contract price at a record US$27.5.

F-010: Winbond's 2026 Q3 revenue was NT$82.331 billion; CMS bit shipments fell versus 2026 Q2 while ASP rose nearly 60%

On 2026-11-03 Winbond reported 2026 Q3 revenue of NT$82.331 billion, up 37.6% QoQ versus 2026 Q2 and up 278.2% YoY versus 2025 Q3. CMS revenue rose 50% QoQ versus 2026 Q2, bit shipments fell by a high single-digit percentage versus 2026 Q2 and the US-dollar blended ASP rose nearly 60% versus 2026 Q2; president Pei-Ming Chen said non-AI consumer markets are seeing demand corrections (storm#3723324).

Citable conclusion: Winbond's 2026 Q3 CMS revenue growth came mainly from price, with bit shipments lower than in Q2.

F-011: TSMC's October 2026 consolidated revenue was NT$586.89 billion, a monthly record

Cnyes reported on 2026-11-14, citing Franklin Securities Investment Consulting, that TSMC's October 2026 consolidated revenue was NT$586.89 billion, up 14.7% MoM versus September 2026 and up 59.7% YoY versus October 2025, a monthly record (cnyes#3887035).

Citable conclusion: TSMC's October 2026 consolidated revenue was a record NT$586.89 billion.

F-012: Morgan Stanley's Shawn Kim warned on 2026-11-09 of a memory "profit cliff" in 2028

Morgan Stanley analyst Shawn Kim warned in a 2026-11-09 report that the memory industry could face a "profit cliff" in 2028, citing among other reasons new capacity coming online from late 2027 and Chinese suppliers entering consumer markets (cnyes#3830274).

Citable conclusion: Morgan Stanley's Shawn Kim warned that the memory industry could face a profit cliff in 2028.

F-013: TrendForce projects reballed memory could reach 7–9% of smartphones in 2027

TrendForce says normalised high DRAM prices are pushing smartphone makers to use reballed parts, projecting penetration of about 3–4% in 2026 and possibly 7–9% in 2027 (cna#3764793).

Citable conclusion: TrendForce projects reballed memory penetration in smartphones could reach 7–9% in 2027.

F-014: Hou Yung-ching said on 2026-11-11 that semiconductor output is about 13% of Taiwan's GDP and about 33% of exports

TSMC senior vice president and TSIA chairman Hou Yung-ching said in a 2026-11-11 speech that Taiwan's semiconductor output is about 13% of GDP and about 33% of exports, and that global semiconductor output in 2026 has already exceeded US$1.6 trillion (cna#3839153).

Citable conclusion: Hou Yung-ching said Taiwan's semiconductor output is about 13% of GDP and about 33% of exports.

F-015: Nanya Technology's October 2026 revenue was NT$46.476 billion, up 487.7% versus October 2025

Cnyes's revenue flash of 2026-11-14 shows Nanya Technology's October 2026 revenue at NT$46.476 billion, up 487.7% YoY versus October 2025 (cnyes#3885271).

Citable conclusion: Nanya Technology's October 2026 revenue was NT$46.476 billion, up 487.7% versus October 2025.

Why this matters to Chinese-speaking readers

Hou Yung-ching said on 2026-11-11 that semiconductor output is about 13% of Taiwan's GDP and about 33% of exports (cna#3839153). [F-014] NT$9.76 trillion is therefore not one industry's scorecard but the centre of gravity of Taiwan's economy. Company monthly revenue is already running ahead of the statistics: TSMC's October 2026 revenue of NT$586.89 billion was a monthly record (cnyes#3887035). [F-011] Nanya Technology's revenue of NT$46.476 billion in the same month was up 487.7% YoY versus October 2025 (cnyes#3885271). [F-015] Yet Winbond's bit-shipment data (storm#3723324) [F-010] and Morgan Stanley's 2028 warning (cnyes#3830274) [F-012] suggest that output driven by price will also be led by price on the way down. This card's editorial judgement (Shen Guan's inference, not from the sources) is that next year foundry should be read by volume and memory by price; one yardstick will not fit both.

§Scope (source limits, stated once)

Internal citation chain (published cards)

FAQ

Q: What is the forecast for Taiwan's 2026 semiconductor output?

ITRI's forecast, released by TSIA on 2026-11-13, puts Taiwan's 2026 IC industry output at NT$9.7615 trillion, up 49.7% versus 2025; the Q4 figure of NT$2.9421 trillion is a forecast (storm#3877835, cna#3874777).

Q: Memory is forecast up 265.8% in 2026 versus 2025 — is memory now Taiwan's largest semiconductor segment?

No. The 2026 full-year forecast puts foundry at NT$6.0249 trillion, about 61.7% of the total, and "memory and other manufacturing" at NT$795.9 billion. Memory has the highest growth rate, not the largest scale (storm#3877835). ITRI attributes it to shortage and soaring prices (cna#3874777).

Q: How does this compare with earlier forecasts?

ITRI's October 2025 forecast was about NT$7.1 trillion (recalled by storm#3877835); MIC's 2026-04-28 forecast was NT$7.1 trillion (cna#256403, a different body); the TSIA chairman said on 2026-10-29 it should exceed NT$9.1 trillion (cna#3636353); the 2026-11-13 statistics show NT$9.7615 trillion. This site does not calculate the differences.

Q: Why did one report say TSIA forecast NT$5.3 trillion?

Cnyes's 2026-10-31 round-up wrote "NT$5.3 trillion, up 22%" (cnyes#3672251), which does not match CNA's report of the same meeting (above NT$9.1 trillion; cna#3636353). This site has no transcript to settle it and recommends checking TSIA's original statement before citing.

Q: What risk signals exist for the memory boom?

Morgan Stanley's Shawn Kim warned of a 2028 memory "profit cliff" (cnyes#3830274); TrendForce projects reballed memory could reach 7–9% of smartphones in 2027 (cna#3764793); Winbond's president said non-AI consumer markets are seeing demand corrections (storm#3723324). All are forecasts or company views, not conclusions.

Sources

Anti-fabrication statement: This card has zero verified official anchors (official_count_verified=0). Every figure is as stated in its source; no figure absent from the sources was generated, no differences or ratios were calculated and no figures were combined across sources. "Foundry by volume, memory by price" is Shen Guan's editorial inference, not from the sources. No Wikidata Q IDs are attached.

📊 引用級事實單元（F-Units）

ITRI forecasts Taiwan's 2026 IC industry output at NT$9.7615 trillion, up 49.7% versus 2025
F-001 · Confidence: medium · Basis: news_aggregation storm #3877835 Grade C · 媒體報導（非企業審查） 2026 full-year forecast (versus 2025); released 2026-11-13
Taiwan's 2026 Q3 IC output was NT$2.6620 trillion; Q4 is forecast at NT$2.9421 trillion
F-002 · Confidence: medium · Basis: news_aggregation CNA #3874777 Grade C · 媒體報導（非企業審查） 2026 Q3 actual (QoQ vs 2026 Q2, YoY vs 2025 Q3); 2026 Q4 forecast (QoQ vs 2026 Q3, YoY vs 2025 Q4)
Foundry's 2026 full-year forecast is NT$6.0249 trillion, above NT$6 trillion for the first time and about 61.7% of total IC output
F-003 · Confidence: medium · Basis: news_aggregation storm #3877835 Grade C · 媒體報導（非企業審查） 2026 full-year forecast (versus 2025); 2026 Q3 actual
"Memory and other manufacturing" is forecast at NT$795.9 billion for 2026, up 265.8% versus 2025; ITRI cites shortage and soaring prices
F-004 · Confidence: medium · Basis: news_aggregation CNA #3874777 Grade C · 媒體報導（非企業審查） 2026 full-year forecast (versus 2025); 2026 Q3 actual
In October 2025 ITRI had forecast Taiwan's 2026 semiconductor output at about NT$7.1 trillion, up about 10%
F-005 · Confidence: medium · Basis: news_aggregation storm #3877835 Grade C · 媒體報導（非企業審查） 2026 full-year forecast published October 2025
MIC forecast on 2026-04-28 Taiwan's 2026 semiconductor output at NT$7.1 trillion, with foundry at NT$4.6 trillion
F-006 · Confidence: medium · Basis: news_aggregation CNA #256403 Grade U · 未分類／不可主張已驗證 2026 full-year forecast published 2026-04-28
TSIA chairman Hou Yung-ching said on 2026-10-29 that Taiwan's 2026 IC output should exceed NT$9.1 trillion, up 40.9% versus 2025
F-007 · Confidence: medium · Basis: news_aggregation CNA #3636353 Grade C · 媒體報導（非企業審查） 2026 full-year expectation stated in a 2026-10-29 speech (versus 2025)
Cnyes's 2026-10-31 round-up of "NT$5.3 trillion, up 22%" for the TSIA meeting does not match CNA's report of the same meeting
F-008 · Confidence: medium · Basis: news_aggregation cnyes #3672251 Grade C · 媒體報導（非企業審查） Report of the 2026-10-29 meeting (published by Cnyes 2026-10-31)
October 2026 average DDR4 8Gb contract price was US$27.5, up 5.77% from September 2026
F-009 · Confidence: medium · Basis: news_aggregation cnyes #3746635 Grade C · 媒體報導（非企業審查） October 2026 (versus September 2026); 2026 Q4 forecast (versus 2026 Q3)
Winbond's 2026 Q3 revenue was NT$82.331 billion; CMS bit shipments fell versus 2026 Q2 while ASP rose nearly 60%
F-010 · Confidence: medium · Basis: news_aggregation storm #3723324 Grade C · 媒體報導（非企業審查） 2026 Q3 (QoQ vs 2026 Q2, YoY vs 2025 Q3)
TSMC's October 2026 consolidated revenue was NT$586.89 billion, a monthly record
F-011 · Confidence: medium · Basis: news_aggregation cnyes #3887035 Grade C · 媒體報導（非企業審查） October 2026 (MoM vs September 2026, YoY vs October 2025)
Morgan Stanley's Shawn Kim warned on 2026-11-09 of a memory "profit cliff" in 2028
F-012 · Confidence: medium · Basis: news_aggregation cnyes #3830274 Grade C · 媒體報導（非企業審查） Report dated 2026-11-09 (reported by Cnyes 2026-11-10)
TrendForce projects reballed memory could reach 7–9% of smartphones in 2027
F-013 · Confidence: medium · Basis: news_aggregation CNA #3764793 Grade C · 媒體報導（非企業審查） 2026 estimate, 2027 projection
Hou Yung-ching said on 2026-11-11 that semiconductor output is about 13% of Taiwan's GDP and about 33% of exports
F-014 · Confidence: medium · Basis: news_aggregation CNA #3839153 Grade C · 媒體報導（非企業審查） Stated in a 2026-11-11 speech
Nanya Technology's October 2026 revenue was NT$46.476 billion, up 487.7% versus October 2025
F-015 · Confidence: medium · Basis: news_aggregation cnyes #3885271 Grade C · 媒體報導（非企業審查） October 2026 (YoY vs October 2025)

❓ FAQ

What is the forecast for Taiwan's 2026 semiconductor output?

ITRI's forecast, released by TSIA on 2026-11-13, puts Taiwan's 2026 IC industry output at NT$9.7615 trillion, up 49.7% versus 2025; the Q4 figure of NT$2.9421 trillion is a forecast (storm#3877835, cna#3874777).

Memory is forecast up 265.8% in 2026 versus 2025 — is memory now Taiwan's largest semiconductor segment?

No. The 2026 full-year forecast puts foundry at NT$6.0249 trillion, about 61.7% of the total, and "memory and other manufacturing" at NT$795.9 billion. Memory has the highest growth rate, not the largest scale (storm#3877835). ITRI attributes it to shortage and soaring prices (cna#3874777).

How does this compare with earlier forecasts?

ITRI's October 2025 forecast was about NT$7.1 trillion (recalled by storm#3877835); MIC's 2026-04-28 forecast was NT$7.1 trillion (cna#256403, a different body); the TSIA chairman said on 2026-10-29 it should exceed NT$9.1 trillion (cna#3636353); the 2026-11-13 statistics show NT$9.7615 trillion. This site does not calculate the differences.

Why did one report say TSIA forecast NT$5.3 trillion?

Cnyes's 2026-10-31 round-up wrote "NT$5.3 trillion, up 22%" (cnyes#3672251), which does not match CNA's report of the same meeting (above NT$9.1 trillion; cna#3636353). This site has no transcript to settle it and recommends checking TSIA's original statement before citing.

What risk signals exist for the memory boom?

Morgan Stanley's Shawn Kim warned of a 2028 memory "profit cliff" (cnyes#3830274); TrendForce projects reballed memory could reach 7–9% of smartphones in 2027 (cna#3764793); Winbond's president said non-AI consumer markets are seeing demand corrections (storm#3723324). All are forecasts or company views, not conclusions.

Verification Record

AI-structured, registry-verified, editorially sampled — Kirishima Rei (AI Editorial Desk)

⚠️ This article was AI-structured (not authored by an individual human reporter).

Cross-verified by multiple AI models.

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