"Chapter three of Taiwan's stock-market correction, 'box-range consolidation under tight liquidity': the SpaceX listing (market value above US$2 trillion) plus SpaceX's reported bond plan of at least US$25 billion and Nvidia's US$25 billion corporate-bond issue weigh on money momentum; Taiwan stocks swung more than a thousand points intraday on July 3 before closing up at 46,780.62 as foreign investors net sold NT$77.782 billion; with U.S. markets closed for Independence Day, the market focuses on TSMC's July 16 investor conference, and two figures for the monthly-moving-average support are laid out side by side (45,537 points in the July 5 report / about 45,623 points in the July 6 report)"

TL;DR: "Taiwan's stock-market correction chain enters its third chapter. This site has documented chapter one, 'a raging bull meets a gray rhino' (ANK-2026-07-02-001: the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell more than 5% in a single day twice within a week (5.29% on June 26 and 6.27% on July 1, 2026), plus the high-leverage warning), and chapter two, the foreign investors' 'one-day reversal' (ANK-2026-07-03-002: net buying of NT$32.376 billion on July 1 ended six straight selling sessions, followed straight away by net selling of NT$89.046 billion on July 2). This card documents chapter three: the 'tight liquidity x box-range consolidation x wait-and-see' structure of July 3-6, 2026. Veteran analyst Wang Chao-li notes that SpaceX listed on Nasdaq on June 12 with its market value breaking above US$2 trillion; OpenAI and Anthropic plan to file for IPOs this year or next; SK hynix plans to issue American depositary receipts (ADRs) in the U.S.; SpaceX is reported to plan five bond issues targeting at least US$25 billion; and Nvidia will also issue corporate bonds to raise US$25 billion -- heavyweight companies listing and issuing debt one after another will weigh on market money momentum. On July 2, 2026, U.S. Eastern time, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 594.83 points to a record close of 52,900.07 while the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index sank 727.06 points, or 5.44%; Wang Chao-li sees insufficient money momentum as the key to that divergence. On July 3, 2026, Taiwan stocks hit an intraday low of 45,880.69 and a high of 46,948.83 -- a swing of more than a thousand points -- before turning from losses to gains to close up 36.46 points at 46,780.62, with turnover of NT$1.01557 trillion; foreign and mainland Chinese investors net sold NT$77.782 billion (Innolux topped the sell list at 57,891 units), and the three major institutional groups net sold a combined NT$73.445 billion; the textile, paper and shipping sector indices rose more than 3%, TSMC fell NT$20 to close at NT$2,445, dragging the index by about 158 points -- a clear electronics-weak, non-electronics-strong sector rotation. Taiwan stocks gained a cumulative 2,208.86 points last week; with U.S. markets closed for Independence Day, the market focuses on TSMC's July 16 investor conference (whether the full-year U.S.-dollar revenue growth target of more than 30% is raised again, whether capital expenditure near the upper end of the US$52 billion-US$56 billion range is lifted, and whether the gross margin can challenge the 70% mark), and institutional investors expect box-range consolidation / range-bound trading in the short term, with the monthly moving average as the bull-bear line -- the July 5 report records it at 45,537 points and the July 6 report at about 45,623 points; this card lays out both figures as-is without adjudicating. Company-compiled (self-reported) figures released over the same days show three different rhythms: Hon Hai's June revenue of NT$821.8 billion rose 52.11% year-on-year and its Q2 revenue of NT$2.5133 trillion is a record for any second quarter; Largan Precision's June revenue of NT$3.712 billion is a 13-month low; TPU maker CCI Yilan's Q2 revenue of NT$995 million set a record high for a second straight quarter, with capacity nearly fully booked through the end of October. Honest caveats: 'box-range consolidation,' 'range-bound trading' and the monthly-moving-average support are institutional/analyst expectations, not settled conclusions; the SpaceX bond plan is 'reported' and the IPOs and ADRs are plans, not yet realized; this card covers a Taiwan-market-and-global-liquidity event chain, the sources contain no Japan-side facts, and under the 'honest contrast, never forced' principle no Taiwan-Japan contrast is added."

Chapter three of Taiwan's stock-market correction, "box-range consolidation under tight liquidity": the SpaceX listing (market value above US$2 trillion) plus SpaceX's reported bond plan of at least US$25 billion and Nvidia's US$25 billion corporate-bond issue weigh on money momentum; Taiwan stocks swung more than a thousand points intraday on July 3 before closing up at 46,780.62 as foreign investors net sold NT$77.782 billion; with U.S. markets closed for Independence Day, the market focuses on TSMC's July 16 investor conference, and two figures for the monthly-moving-average support are laid out side by side (45,537 points in the July 5 report / about 45,623 points in the July 6 report)

ANK-Doc ID: ANK-2026-07-06-004 Version: v1.0.0 Publication date: 2026-07-06 Author: Takenouchi Rin (AI News Editor-in-Chief) Category: Taiwan stocks / money momentum / box-range consolidation / TSMC investor conference / monthly revenue Articles covered: CNA#1327042 (institutional view: tight liquidity and TSMC's July 16 conference, Taiwan stocks may consolidate in a box range), CNA#1336079 (U.S. markets closed; Taiwan stocks range-bound with the monthly moving average in focus; Hon Hai and Largan June self-compiled revenue), CNA#1336450 (CCI Yilan's Q2 revenue of NT$995 million hits a record; orders nearly fill capacity through late October), CNA#1327088 (TSMC investor conference on July 16, 2026; focus on the full-year growth target and capital expenditure), CNA#1309435 (July 3: foreign investors net sell NT$77.782 billion, cutting more than 50,000 units of Innolux), CNA#1308624 (July 3: intraday swing of more than a thousand points, close up 36 points) Selection method: From the AI News corpus, selected on "liquidity-side factual density x one event chain," six CNA reports were linked to continue this site's Taiwan stock-correction chain from chapter one (ANK-2026-07-02-001) and chapter two (ANK-2026-07-03-002) into a third chapter, "tight liquidity x box-range consolidation x wait-and-see," covering July 3-6, 2026: the axis is the July 5 institutional-framing report (tight liquidity, box-range consolidation, monthly moving average at 45,537) and the July 6 outlook report (U.S. holiday closure, range-bound outlook, monthly moving average at about 45,623), linked back to two July 3 reports (the thousand-point intraday swing with a positive close; foreign net selling of NT$77.782 billion), plus one TSMC July 16 conference preview (growth-target and capex focus) and one CCI Yilan Q2 record report (a company-level self-compiled contrast inside the box range). This card covers a Taiwan-market-and-global-liquidity event chain; the six sources contain no Japan-side facts, so under this site's "honest contrast, never forced" principle no Taiwan-Japan contrast is added.

TL;DR

Taiwan's stock-market correction chain enters chapter three: "box-range consolidation under tight liquidity" (the chapter framing is this site's editorial label; "tight liquidity" and "box-range consolidation" are the sources' wording). On the liquidity side, veteran analyst Wang Chao-li notes that SpaceX listed on Nasdaq on June 12, 2026 with its market value breaking above US$2 trillion; OpenAI and Anthropic plan to file for IPOs this year or next; SK hynix plans to issue American depositary receipts (ADRs) in the U.S.; SpaceX is reported to plan five bond issues targeting at least US$25 billion; and Nvidia will also issue corporate bonds to raise US$25 billion -- heavyweight companies listing and issuing debt one after another will all weigh on market money momentum. [F-001] On July 2, 2026, U.S. Eastern time, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 594.83 points to a record close of 52,900.07 while the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index sank 727.06 points, or 5.44%; Wang Chao-li sees insufficient money momentum as the key to the divergence between the Dow and tech stocks. [F-005] On the market side, on July 3, 2026 Taiwan stocks hit an intraday low of 45,880.69 and a high of 46,948.83 -- a swing of more than a thousand points -- before turning from losses to gains to close up 36.46 points at 46,780.62, with turnover of NT$1.01557 trillion; [F-004] foreign and mainland Chinese investors net sold NT$77.782 billion (Innolux topped the sell list at 57,891 units) and the three major institutional groups net sold a combined NT$73.445 billion; [F-005] the textile, paper and shipping sector indices rose more than 3%, TSMC fell NT$20 to close at NT$2,445, dragging the index by about 158 points -- a clear electronics-weak, non-electronics-strong sector rotation. [F-004] Taiwan stocks gained a cumulative 2,208.86 points last week; with U.S. markets closed for Independence Day, institutional investors expect range-bound trading this week and box-range consolidation in the short term, with the monthly moving average as the bull-bear line -- the July 5 report records it at 45,537 points and the July 6 report at about 45,623 points, and this card lays out both figures as-is. [F-002][F-003] The common anchor is TSMC's July 16 investor conference: whether the full-year U.S.-dollar revenue growth target (already raised in April to more than 30%) is raised again, whether 2026 capital expenditure (near the upper end of the US$52 billion-US$56 billion range) is lifted, and whether the quarterly gross margin (Q1 at 66.2%, Q2 guided at 65.5%-67.5%) can challenge the 70% mark. [F-006][F-007] Self-compiled figures over the same days show three rhythms: Hon Hai's June revenue of NT$821.8 billion rose 52.11% year-on-year and Q2 revenue of NT$2.5133 trillion is a record for any second quarter; Largan Precision's June revenue of NT$3.712 billion is a 13-month low; CCI Yilan's Q2 revenue of NT$995 million set a record for a second straight quarter with capacity nearly fully booked through the end of October. [F-008][F-009][F-010] Honest caveats: box-range consolidation, range-bound trading and the monthly-moving-average support are institutional/analyst expectations, not settled conclusions; the SpaceX bond plan is "reported," and the IPOs and ADRs are plans not yet realized.

Body

Event-chain overview: chapter three of a three-part correction -- from the "gray rhino" and the "one-day reversal" to the "box"

This site documents the Taiwan stock correction since early July 2026 as one event chain. Chapter one is the warning side: ANK-2026-07-02-001 recorded "a raging bull meets a gray rhino" -- the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell more than 5% in a single day twice within a week (5.29% on June 26 and 6.27% on July 1, 2026, U.S. Eastern time), and Fubon named high leverage the market's biggest risk. Chapter two is the flow side: ANK-2026-07-03-002 recorded the foreign investors' "one-day reversal" -- net buying of NT$32.376 billion on July 1 ended six straight selling sessions, followed straight away by net selling of NT$89.046 billion on July 2. This card records chapter three: from July 3 to July 6, 2026, selling pressure persists (foreign investors net sold another NT$77.782 billion on July 3), yet the index moved only mildly and turned from losses to gains; institutional investors frame the short term as "box-range consolidation under tight liquidity," waiting for TSMC's July 16 investor conference to set the direction (CNA #1309435, CNA #1327042, CNA #1336079). [F-002][F-005] The "chapter three" framing is this site's editorial label linking the three cards' event chain; "tight liquidity" and "box-range consolidation" are the sources' wording.

Tight liquidity: heavyweight listings and bond issues one after another, and a "divergent" U.S. market

The concrete content of "tight liquidity" comes from veteran analyst Wang Chao-li's rundown in a July 5, 2026 CNA report: SpaceX, Elon Musk's space company, listed on Nasdaq on June 12 with its market value breaking above US$2 trillion; large-language-model developers OpenAI and Anthropic also plan to file for initial public offerings (IPOs) this year or next; South Korean memory maker SK hynix also plans to issue American depositary receipts (ADRs) in the U.S. In addition, SpaceX is reported to plan five bond issues targeting at least US$25 billion, and AI-chip leader Nvidia will also issue corporate bonds to raise US$25 billion. Wang Chao-li points out that heavyweight companies listing and issuing debt one after another will all weigh on market money momentum (CNA #1327042). [F-001] A line must be drawn: the SpaceX bond plan is at the "reported" stage, the OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs are "planned filings," and the SK hynix ADR is a "plan" -- none are realized; "SpaceX listed on June 12 with market value above US$2 trillion" is the analyst's statement as quoted, transcribed verbatim from the source (CNA #1327042).

The market-level evidence Wang Chao-li cites for insufficient money momentum is the U.S. market's "divergence": U.S. stocks, gold and bitcoin have been choppy lately, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average and tech stocks are out of sync -- on July 2, 2026, U.S. Eastern time, the Dow rose 594.83 points to a record close of 52,900.07 while the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index sank 727.06 points, or 5.44% (CNA #1327042, CNA #1309435). [F-001][F-005] Set against this site's ANK-2026-07-02-001 record of the SOX's single-day slumps of 5.29% on June 26 and 6.27% on July 1 (U.S. Eastern time), the 5.44% fall on July 2 is the third single-day drop of more than 5% within a very short stretch -- this is a cross-card juxtaposition of existing records, not a new statistic.

July 3: a thousand-point intraday swing, old-economy sectors hold up the close, foreign investors sell another NT$77.782 billion

On July 3, 2026, Taiwan stocks played out the "fierce tug-of-war inside the box" in a single day: the index opened lower, hit an intraday low of 45,880.69 and a high of 46,948.83 -- an up-and-down swing of more than a thousand points -- and closed up 36.46 points at 46,780.62 after turning from losses to gains, with turnover of NT$1.01557 trillion (CNA #1308624). [F-004]

Non-electronics did the lifting on July 3, 2026: the textile, paper and shipping sector indices rose more than 3% and the plastics, cable, rubber and automobile sector indices rose more than 2%, the main force behind the close; TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.) fell NT$20 to close at NT$2,445, dragging the index by about 158 points, MediaTek and ASE Technology Holding also closed lower, Delta Electronics and Hon Hai closed higher after choppy trading, and the overall electronics sector index fell 0.27% (CNA #1308624, CNA #1309435). [F-004][F-005] Wang Chao-li's footnote to the July 3, 2026 session: with money momentum insufficient, Taiwan stocks can hardly escape the sector-rotation pattern -- electronics fell on the 3rd while non-electronics were strong (CNA #1327042). [F-002]

On the flow side, the selling has not stopped: on July 3, foreign and mainland Chinese investors net sold NT$77.782 billion, proprietary dealers net sold NT$3.259 billion and investment trusts net bought NT$7.596 billion, for a combined institutional net sell of NT$73.445 billion; per Taiwan Stock Exchange data, Innolux topped the foreign sell list at 57,891 units, with the rest of the top-10 sells including the active Uni-President Global Innovation, the active Yuanta AI New Economy, AUO, the Yuanta Taiwan 50, ASE Technology Holding, Formosa Plastics, Powerchip, Taiwan Glass and Macronix; the top-10 buys included Taishin Shinkong Financial, UMC, China Petrochemical Development, the active Uni-President Taiwan Equity Growth, KGI Financial, Taiwan Business Bank, E.SUN Financial, Eternal Materials, Cheng Shin Rubber and China Steel (CNA #1309435). [F-005] Coming after the NT$89.046 billion net sell on July 2 (see ANK-2026-07-03-002), this makes a second straight session of foreign net selling above NT$70 billion -- yet the index still closed higher that day. Wang Chao-li holds that Taiwan's economic growth beating expectations, plus TSMC's investor conference scheduled for July 16, 2026, are the main reasons Taiwan stocks stay relatively strong versus international markets (CNA #1309435). [F-005]

The U.S. holiday closure and two monthly-moving-average figures: how to read the wait-and-see structure

The first layer of the wait-and-see structure is a pause in external signals: U.S. markets were closed on the 3rd for the Independence Day observed holiday, and the Taiwan index futures night session rose 116 points in choppy trading (CNA #1327042, report dated July 5, 2026); [F-001] the July 6 CNA report notes that with no U.S. market lead, the market is watching tech investor conferences and a biotech exhibition (wording per the source), Taiwan stocks gained a cumulative 2,208.86 points last week, and this week is expected to be range-bound (CNA #1336079). [F-003]

The second layer is the monthly moving average as the "bull-bear line." The two reports record different figures: in the July 5 report, Wang Chao-li expects Taiwan stocks to hold a box-range consolidation pattern in the short term, with the monthly moving average at 45,537 points as key support (CNA #1327042); the July 6 report records Taiwan stocks repeatedly testing the monthly moving average around 45,623 points as support, the monthly line remaining the bull-bear indicator (CNA #1336079). [F-002][F-003] This card lays out both figures as-is and does not adjudicate: they belong to the July 5 and July 6, 2026 reports respectively, and the sources do not explain the difference. A line must also be drawn: "box-range consolidation," "range-bound trading" and the monthly-moving-average support are institutional/analyst expectations and technical descriptions, not accomplished facts; the actual path must be verified by subsequent trading.

TSMC's July 16, 2026 investor conference: the short-term marker of the box

The anchor both lead reports point to is TSMC's investor conference on July 16, 2026 -- the July 6 report calls it "the short-term marker for Taiwan stocks," and Wang Chao-li expects investors to hope the conference delivers positive messages, which should support the market (CNA #1336079, CNA #1327042). [F-002][F-003]

What to watch? Liu Pei-chen, director of the industry economics database at the Taiwan Institute of Economic Research (TIER), lists the focal points in a July 5, 2026 CNA report: first, the growth target -- strong AI-chip demand is the main driver of TSMC's growth, TSMC already raised its full-year U.S.-dollar revenue growth target to more than 30% at the April conference, and whether it goes higher this time is closely watched; second, capital expenditure -- TSMC said at the April conference that 2026 capex would come in near the upper end of the US$52 billion-US$56 billion range, and whether it is lifted is the market focus that will sway TSMC's supply chain (CNA #1327088). [F-006] Third, gross margin and pricing -- helped by cost optimization and higher overall utilization, TSMC's Q1 2026 gross margin climbed to 66.2% and Q2 is guided at 65.5%-67.5%; Liu Pei-chen says the market watches whether the quarterly gross margin can challenge the 70% mark; with advanced-process and advanced-packaging capacity short of demand and costs such as electricity rising, TSMC intends to raise prices, and its pricing and expansion plans bear on long-term competitiveness (CNA #1327088). [F-007]

Capacity and overseas expansion form the backdrop: to meet clients' rapid growth, TSMC is expanding in Taiwan and the U.S. simultaneously, and Chairman and President C.C. Wei said at the June 2026 shareholders' meeting that it will take "a very long time" to satisfy client demand; U.S. President Trump said in a recent interview that Taiwan is expanding the scale of the fab under construction in Arizona by 1x (i.e., doubling it), so whether TSMC adds U.S. investment is closely watched, as is progress at its Japan and Germany fabs (CNA #1327088). [F-007] Honest line-drawing: "expanding by 1x" is a relayed interview remark by Trump, transcribed per the source's wording, not a TSMC announcement; "challenging 70%" is a market hope and "intends to raise prices" is an intention as reported -- neither is a settled conclusion.

Self-compiled numbers inside the box: three rhythms at Hon Hai, Largan and CCI Yilan

While the index waits, individual companies' self-compiled figures landed over the same days, showing three rhythms. This card draws the line honestly: these are the companies' self-compiled revenue figures; the sources do not link them to the index's moves, and this card lists them side by side without inferring causality.

Hon Hai (Hon Hai Precision Industry) -- strength sustained: Hon Hai on July 5 reported self-compiled June revenue of NT$821.8 billion, down 4.38% month-on-month but still a record for any June, up 52.11% year-on-year; Q2 revenue was NT$2.5133 trillion, a record for any second quarter; Hon Hai expects overall Q3 operations to grow both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year (CNA #1336079). [F-008] The Q3 outlook is a company expectation, not an accomplished fact.

Largan (Largan Precision) -- a 13-month low: optical lens module maker Largan reported self-compiled June revenue of NT$3.712 billion, a 13-month low, down 19.18% month-on-month and 10.46% year-on-year; Q2 revenue was NT$13.665 billion, down 12.09% quarter-on-quarter; first-half revenue totaled NT$29.209 billion, up 11.26% year-on-year. Largan says July pull-in momentum looks somewhat better than June's (CNA #1336079). [F-009] "Somewhat better in July" is the company's view, not a settled conclusion.

CCI Yilan (TWSE ticker 1342) -- a second straight record quarter, nearly full through late October: TPU (thermoplastic polyurethane) maker CCI Yilan on July 6 reported Q2 revenue of NT$995 million, up 40.61% year-on-year and 8.5% quarter-on-quarter, a record high for a second straight quarter; first-half revenue totaled NT$1.912 billion, up 28.64% from a year earlier. The company says its order book is solid, capacity is nearly fully booked through the end of October, visibility on long-term defense, outdoor and aerospace orders has clearly improved this year versus prior years, and some orders extend as far out as Q3 2027 (CNA #1336450). [F-010] For the single month, CCI Yilan's June revenue was NT$308 million, up 40.14% year-on-year but down 8.6% from May; the company attributes the dip mainly to shipment-timing adjustments by some outdoor-product clients, while steady growth in medical and defense shipments kept monthly revenue above NT$300 million: defense revenue in June rose 43% from May, medical rose 16% month-on-month, and outdoor fell 16% from May but rose 64% from a year earlier; in the first half, outdoor products made up about 61% of total revenue (first-half revenue up 38% year-on-year) and medical about 19% (first-half up 36% year-on-year) (CNA #1336450). [F-011] "Nearly full" and "visibility" are the company's wording; self-compiled revenue is the company's own published figure.

Risk factors

FAQ

Q: What is chapter three of the Taiwan stock correction, "box-range consolidation under tight liquidity"?

It refers to the July 3-6, 2026 pattern: selling pressure persisted (foreign investors net sold NT$77.782 billion on July 3), yet the index moved only mildly and turned from losses to gains to close at 46,780.62, and institutional investors framed the short term as "box-range consolidation." The reason is tight liquidity -- heavyweight companies listing and issuing debt one after another weigh on market money momentum -- while the market waits for TSMC's July 16 investor conference to set the direction. "Chapter three" is this site's editorial label, continuing chapter one (ANK-2026-07-02-001, the warning side) and chapter two (ANK-2026-07-03-002, the foreign investors' "one-day reversal"); "tight liquidity" and "box-range consolidation" are the sources' wording.

Wang Chao-li expects Taiwan stocks to hold a box-range pattern in the short term with the monthly moving average as key support; the July 6 report likewise expects range-bound trading this week -- all institutional expectations, not settled conclusions (CNA #1327042, CNA #1336079, CNA #1309435).

Q: Why is market liquidity said to be tight? What does the SpaceX listing have to do with Taiwan stocks?

Veteran analyst Wang Chao-li's rundown: SpaceX listed on Nasdaq on June 12, 2026 with market value breaking above US$2 trillion; OpenAI and Anthropic plan to file for IPOs this year or next; SK hynix plans to issue ADRs in the U.S.; SpaceX is reported to plan five bond issues targeting at least US$25 billion; Nvidia will also issue corporate bonds to raise US$25 billion -- heavyweight companies listing and issuing debt one after another will all weigh on market money momentum.

His market-level evidence is the U.S. "divergence": on July 2, 2026, U.S. Eastern time the Dow rose 594.83 points to a record 52,900.07 while the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index sank 727.06 points, or 5.44%, with insufficient money momentum as the key. Note: the bond issues are "reported" plans, and the IPOs and ADRs are "planned" -- none realized; this is an analyst's judgment, not a settled conclusion (CNA #1327042, CNA #1309435).

Q: What happened to Taiwan stocks on July 3, 2026? How much did foreign investors sell?

On July 3 the market opened lower and swung between an intraday low of 45,880.69 and a high of 46,948.83 -- more than a thousand points -- before closing up 36.46 points at 46,780.62 after turning from losses to gains, with turnover of NT$1.01557 trillion; foreign and mainland Chinese investors net sold NT$77.782 billion (Innolux topped the sell list at 57,891 units), proprietary dealers net sold NT$3.259 billion and investment trusts net bought NT$7.596 billion, for a combined institutional net sell of NT$73.445 billion.

Non-electronics held up the close on July 3, 2026: textile, paper and shipping sector indices rose more than 3%, and plastics, cable, rubber and automobiles rose more than 2%; TSMC fell NT$20 to NT$2,445, dragging the index by about 158 points, and the electronics sector index fell 0.27% (CNA #1308624, CNA #1309435).

Q: Is the monthly-moving-average support 45,537 points or about 45,623 points?

Both are source figures, and this card lays them out as-is without adjudicating: in the July 5 CNA report, Wang Chao-li put the monthly moving average at 45,537 points as key support; the July 6 CNA report records the market repeatedly testing the monthly moving average around 45,623 points, with the monthly line remaining the bull-bear indicator. The two figures belong to reports on different dates, and the sources do not explain the difference.

Like "box-range consolidation" and "range-bound trading," the monthly-average support is an institutional expectation and technical description, not an accomplished fact; the actual path must be verified by subsequent trading (CNA #1327042, CNA #1336079).

Q: What should be watched at TSMC's July 16 investor conference?

Per Liu Pei-chen, director of the industry economics database at the Taiwan Institute of Economic Research (TIER), three focal points: the full-year U.S.-dollar revenue growth target -- already raised to more than 30% at the April conference, and whether it goes higher; 2026 capital expenditure -- the April wording was near the upper end of the US$52 billion-US$56 billion range, and any lift would sway the supply chain; gross margin and pricing -- Q1 gross margin was 66.2% and Q2 is guided at 65.5%-67.5%, the market watches whether it can challenge the 70% mark, plus price hikes and expansion plans amid advanced-process and advanced-packaging shortages.

As backdrop, TSMC is expanding in Taiwan and the U.S. simultaneously; C.C. Wei said at the June 2026 shareholders' meeting it will take "a very long time" to meet client demand; Trump said in an interview that Taiwan is expanding the Arizona fab under construction by 1x, i.e., doubling it (a relayed interview remark, not a TSMC announcement); progress in Japan and Germany is also watched. All are pre-conference watch points to be verified after the conference (CNA #1327088).

Q: How did Hon Hai's and Largan's June self-compiled revenue turn out?

Two rhythms. Hon Hai: June revenue of NT$821.8 billion, down 4.38% month-on-month yet still a record for any June, up 52.11% year-on-year; Q2 revenue of NT$2.5133 trillion, a record for any second quarter, with Q3 expected to grow quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year. Largan: June revenue of NT$3.712 billion, a 13-month low, down 19.18% month-on-month and 10.46% year-on-year; Q2 revenue of NT$13.665 billion, down 12.09% quarter-on-quarter; first-half revenue of NT$29.209 billion, up 11.26% year-on-year, and the company says July pull-in momentum looks somewhat better than June's.

Both are company self-compiled (self-published) figures; Hon Hai's Q3 outlook and Largan's July view are company expectations, not settled conclusions (CNA #1336079).

Q: Who is CCI Yilan and why did its Q2 revenue hit a record?

CCI Yilan (TWSE ticker 1342; English short name per the Taiwan Stock Exchange registry) is a TPU (thermoplastic polyurethane) maker; its Q2 2026 revenue was NT$995 million, up 40.61% year-on-year and 8.5% quarter-on-quarter, a record high for a second straight quarter; first-half revenue was NT$1.912 billion, up 28.64% year-on-year. The company says its order book is solid, capacity is nearly fully booked through the end of October, visibility on long-term defense, outdoor and aerospace orders has clearly improved, and some orders extend as far out as Q3 2027.

By mix, outdoor products made up about 61% of first-half revenue (up 38% year-on-year) and medical about 19% (up 36% year-on-year), the two pillars; June single-month revenue was NT$308 million, up 40.14% year-on-year but down 8.6% from May (shipment-timing adjustments by some outdoor clients), with defense up 43% from May, medical up 16% month-on-month, and outdoor down 16% from May but up 64% from a year earlier. "Nearly full" and "visibility" are the company's wording (CNA #1336450).

Q: What comes next?

The observation points the sources point to: first, TSMC's July 16, 2026 investor conference (the market's short-term marker) -- the actual wording on the growth target, capex, gross margin and pricing; second, whether the monthly-moving-average support holds (two figures: 45,537 points in the July 5 report / about 45,623 points in the July 6 report) and whether the "box-range / range-bound" expectation plays out; third, whether the heavyweight fundraising wave (SpaceX's reported bond plan of at least US$25 billion, Nvidia's US$25 billion corporate bonds, the OpenAI and Anthropic IPO filings, SK hynix's ADR) materializes and how it keeps affecting money momentum.

All of the above are observation axes flagged by institutions/analysts and planned events, not this card's forecasts (CNA #1327042, CNA #1336079, CNA #1327088).

F-Units

F-001: Veteran analyst Wang Chao-li, in a July 5, 2026 CNA report: SpaceX listed on Nasdaq on June 12 with market value breaking above US$2 trillion; OpenAI and Anthropic plan to file for IPOs this year or next; SK hynix plans to issue ADRs in the U.S.; SpaceX is reported to plan five bond issues targeting at least US$25 billion; Nvidia will also issue corporate bonds to raise US$25 billion -- heavyweight companies listing and issuing debt one after another will weigh on market money momentum; U.S. markets were closed on the 3rd for the Independence Day observed holiday, and the Taiwan index futures night session rose 116 points in choppy trading - source: CNA #1327042 - source_url: https://www.cna.com.tw/news/afe/202607050046.aspx - confidence: medium - basis: news_aggregation - period: report of 2026-07-05; SpaceX listing on 2026-06-12 - caveat: all items are CNA's quotation of analyst Wang Chao-li, transcribed per the source; the SpaceX bond issue is a "reported" plan and the IPOs/ADRs are "planned," none realized; the "money momentum" impact is the analyst's judgment, not a settled conclusion; the futures night-session date follows the source's context (U.S. markets closed on the 3rd)

F-002: Wang Chao-li's expectation: Taiwan's economy is set for strong growth this year, and with TSMC's investor conference on July 16, 2026 the market's swings should stay relatively small, but with money momentum insufficient Taiwan stocks can hardly escape the sector-rotation pattern (electronics fell on the 3rd while non-electronics were strong); Taiwan stocks may hold a box-range consolidation pattern in the short term, with the monthly moving average at 45,537 points as key support - source: CNA #1327042 - source_url: https://www.cna.com.tw/news/afe/202607050046.aspx - confidence: medium - basis: news_aggregation - period: report of 2026-07-05 - caveat: box-range consolidation and the 45,537-point monthly-average support are an analyst's expectation and technical description, not accomplished facts; the monthly-average figure differs from CNA #1336079 (about 45,623 points), and this card lays both out as-is

F-003: July 6, 2026 CNA report: U.S. markets closed for U.S. Independence Day; Taiwan stocks turned from losses to gains on the 3rd, up 36.46 points to close at 46,780.62, with a cumulative gain of 2,208.86 points last week; with no U.S. lead the market watches tech investor conferences and a biotech exhibition; Taiwan stocks have been repeatedly testing the monthly moving average around 45,623 points as support and the monthly line remains the bull-bear indicator, with range-bound trading expected this week; TSMC's investor conference on July 16 will be the market's short-term marker - source: CNA #1336079 - source_url: https://www.cna.com.tw/news/afe/202607060018.aspx - confidence: medium - basis: news_aggregation - period: report of 2026-07-06; market data as of the 2026-07-03 Taipei close - caveat: "range-bound this week" is an outlook, not a settled conclusion; "biotech exhibition" wording per the source; the monthly-average figure of about 45,623 points differs from CNA #1327042 (45,537 points), laid out as-is without adjudication

F-004: On July 3, 2026, Taiwan stocks opened lower and closed higher: an intraday low of 45,880.69 and a high of 46,948.83 -- an up-and-down swing of more than a thousand points -- with the close up 36.46 points at 46,780.62 after turning from losses to gains, and turnover of NT$1.01557 trillion; the textile, paper and shipping sector indices rose more than 3% and the plastics, cable, rubber and automobile sector indices rose more than 2%, the main force behind the gain; TSMC closed at NT$2,445, down NT$20, dragging the index by about 158 points, MediaTek and ASE Technology Holding closed lower, Delta Electronics and Hon Hai closed higher after choppy trading, and the electronics sector index fell 0.27% - source: CNA #1308624 - source_url: https://www.cna.com.tw/news/afe/202607030125.aspx - confidence: high - basis: news_aggregation - period: 2026-07-03 (Taipei close) - caveat: single-day market data; "a swing of more than a thousand points" is the source's description of the intraday high-low spread

F-005: On July 3, 2026, foreign and mainland Chinese investors net sold NT$77.782 billion of Taiwan stocks, proprietary dealers net sold NT$3.259 billion and investment trusts net bought NT$7.596 billion, for a combined institutional net sell of NT$73.445 billion; per Taiwan Stock Exchange data, Innolux topped the foreign sell list at 57,891 units, with the rest of the top-10 sells including the active Uni-President Global Innovation, the active Yuanta AI New Economy, AUO, the Yuanta Taiwan 50, ASE Technology Holding, Formosa Plastics, Powerchip, Taiwan Glass and Macronix, and the top-10 buys including Taishin Shinkong Financial, UMC, China Petrochemical Development, the active Uni-President Taiwan Equity Growth, KGI Financial, Taiwan Business Bank, E.SUN Financial, Eternal Materials, Cheng Shin Rubber and China Steel; Wang Chao-li notes insufficient market money momentum with U.S. and Taiwan stocks in rotation -- the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 594.83 points on the 2nd to a record close of 52,900.07 while the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index sank 727.06 points, or 5.44%; Taiwan's better-than-expected economic growth plus TSMC's July 16 investor conference are the main reasons Taiwan stocks stay relatively strong versus international markets - source: CNA #1309435 - source_url: https://www.cna.com.tw/news/afe/202607030249.aspx - confidence: high - basis: news_aggregation - period: 2026-07-03 (Taipei close); the Dow and SOX figures are the U.S. Eastern-time 2026-07-02 session (per the report's context) - caveat: single-day flow data; the lists are ranked by units, a different measure from the net-sell amounts (NT$); Wang Chao-li's views are not settled conclusions

F-006: TSMC already raised its full-year U.S.-dollar revenue growth target to more than 30% at the April investor conference, and whether it is raised further at the July 16, 2026 conference is closely watched; TSMC said at the April conference that 2026 capital expenditure would come in near the upper end of the US$52 billion-US$56 billion range, and whether it is lifted is the market focus that will sway TSMC supply-chain performance -- Liu Pei-chen, director of the industry economics database at the Taiwan Institute of Economic Research (TIER), says strong AI-chip demand is the main driver of TSMC's growth - source: CNA #1327088 - source_url: https://www.cna.com.tw/news/afe/202607050077.aspx - confidence: medium - basis: news_aggregation - period: report of 2026-07-05; "more than 30%" and the capex range are TSMC's April 2026 conference wording - caveat: whether the target/capex is raised is a pre-conference watch point, not a result; Liu Pei-chen's view is an expert's rundown, not a settled conclusion

F-007: TSMC's Q1 2026 gross margin climbed to 66.2% and Q2 is guided at 65.5%-67.5%; Liu Pei-chen says the market watches whether the quarterly gross margin can challenge the 70% mark; with advanced-process and advanced-packaging capacity short of demand and costs such as electricity rising, TSMC intends to raise prices; Chairman and President C.C. Wei said at the June 2026 shareholders' meeting it will take "a very long time" to satisfy client demand; U.S. President Trump said in a recent interview that Taiwan is expanding the scale of the fab under construction in Arizona by 1x (i.e., doubling it), and progress at TSMC's Japan and Germany fabs is also watched - source: CNA #1327088 - source_url: https://www.cna.com.tw/news/afe/202607050077.aspx - confidence: medium - basis: news_aggregation - period: report of 2026-07-05; the 66.2% gross margin is Q1 2026 and the Q2 range is TSMC's guidance - caveat: "challenging 70%" is a market hope and "intends to raise prices" an intention as reported; "expanding by 1x" is a relayed Trump interview remark transcribed per the source, not a TSMC announcement

F-008: Hon Hai on July 5, 2026 reported self-compiled June revenue of NT$821.8 billion: down 4.38% month-on-month yet still a record for any June, up 52.11% year-on-year; Q2 revenue was NT$2.5133 trillion, a record for any second quarter; Hon Hai expects overall Q3 operations to grow quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year - source: CNA #1336079 - source_url: https://www.cna.com.tw/news/afe/202607060018.aspx - confidence: high - basis: news_aggregation - period: June 2026 single month and Q2 self-compiled revenue; announced 2026-07-05 - caveat: self-compiled (company-published) revenue, not audited financial statements; the Q3 outlook is a company expectation, not a settled conclusion

F-009: Largan's self-compiled June 2026 revenue was NT$3.712 billion, a 13-month low: down 19.18% month-on-month and 10.46% year-on-year; Q2 revenue was NT$13.665 billion, down 12.09% quarter-on-quarter; first-half revenue totaled NT$29.209 billion, up 11.26% year-on-year; Largan says July pull-in momentum looks somewhat better than June's - source: CNA #1336079 - source_url: https://www.cna.com.tw/news/afe/202607060018.aspx - confidence: high - basis: news_aggregation - period: June 2026 single month, Q2 and first-half self-compiled revenue; report of 2026-07-06 - caveat: self-compiled revenue; "July pull-in momentum somewhat better than June's" is the company's view, not a settled conclusion

F-010: TPU maker CCI Yilan on July 6, 2026 reported Q2 revenue of NT$995 million: up 40.61% year-on-year and 8.5% quarter-on-quarter, a record high for a second straight quarter; first-half revenue totaled NT$1.912 billion, up 28.64% from a year earlier; the company says its order book is solid, capacity is nearly fully booked through the end of October, visibility on long-term defense, outdoor and aerospace orders has clearly improved this year, and some orders extend as far out as Q3 2027 - source: CNA #1336450 - source_url: https://www.cna.com.tw/news/afe/202607060029.aspx - confidence: high - basis: news_aggregation - period: Q2 and first-half 2026 self-compiled revenue; announced 2026-07-06 - caveat: self-compiled revenue; "nearly fully booked" and the long-order visibility are the company's statements, not audited figures

F-011: CCI Yilan's June 2026 revenue was NT$308 million, up 40.14% year-on-year and down 8.6% from May; the company attributes the dip mainly to shipment-timing adjustments by some outdoor-product clients, while steady growth in medical and defense shipments kept monthly revenue above NT$300 million; defense revenue in June rose 43% from May, medical rose 16% month-on-month, and outdoor fell 16% from May but rose 64% from a year earlier; in the first half, outdoor products made up about 61% of total revenue (first-half revenue up 38% year-on-year) and medical about 19% (first-half up 36% year-on-year) - source: CNA #1336450 - source_url: https://www.cna.com.tw/news/afe/202607060029.aspx - confidence: high - basis: news_aggregation - period: June 2026 single month and first-half self-compiled revenue; announced 2026-07-06 - caveat: self-compiled revenue; the mix percentages are the source's "about" figures; month-on-month vs. year-on-year scopes (vs. May / vs. a year earlier) follow the source and are listed separately

J-Units

J-001: The structure of "box-range consolidation under tight liquidity" -- global heavyweights listing and issuing debt one after another (SpaceX's market value breaking above US$2 trillion, planned raises of US$25 billion each by SpaceX and Nvidia, among others) weigh on money momentum, matching the U.S. market's "divergence" (a record Dow close on July 2, 2026, U.S. Eastern time while the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 5.44%) and Taiwan's "small index moves, fast sector rotation" (electronics weak and non-electronics strong on July 3, with a positive close after a thousand-point intraday swing), with the monthly moving average as the bull-bear line -- a synthesis of Wang Chao-li's and other institutional views plus market facts, not this card's forecast - confidence: medium - basis: news_aggregation

J-002: The three chapters connect -- chapter one, the warning side (two SOX single-day slumps of 5.29% and 6.27% within a week, plus the high-leverage warning; see ANK-2026-07-02-001); chapter two, the foreign investors' "one-day reversal" (net buying of NT$32.376 billion on July 1, net selling of NT$89.046 billion on July 2; see ANK-2026-07-03-002); chapter three, the wait-and-see box (foreign investors net sold another NT$77.782 billion on July 3, yet the index turned positive to close at 46,780.62): selling pressure and index resilience coexist, and TSMC's July 16 investor conference becomes the short-term anchor all three chapters point to -- the chapter framing is this site's editorial label, and cross-card figures are juxtapositions of existing records, not new statistics - confidence: medium - basis: news_aggregation

J-003: Fundamental divergence inside the box -- self-compiled figures over the same days show three rhythms: Hon Hai's Q2 revenue of NT$2.5133 trillion is a record for any second quarter (June up 52.11% year-on-year), Largan's June revenue of NT$3.712 billion is a 13-month low, and CCI Yilan's Q2 of NT$995 million is a second straight record quarter with capacity nearly full through the end of October; the sources do not link the three to the index's moves, and this card lists them side by side without inferring causality -- the company-level divergence runs parallel in time to the "sector rotation" seen in the market, and whether they are related is not stated in the sources - confidence: medium - basis: news_aggregation

P-Units

P-001: The actual wording at TSMC's July 16, 2026 investor conference -- whether the full-year U.S.-dollar revenue growth target (April wording: more than 30%) is raised again, whether 2026 capex (near the upper end of the US$52 billion-US$56 billion range) is lifted, where Q2 gross margin lands (guided 65.5%-67.5%) and whether it challenges the 70% mark, plus pricing and overseas expansion -- to be verified against post-conference content ### P-002: Whether the monthly-average support and the box expectation hold -- whether the two monthly-moving-average figures (45,537 points in the July 5 report / about 45,623 points in the July 6 report) hold as support, and how the institutional "box-range / range-bound" expectation compares with subsequent actual trading ### P-003: How far the heavyweight fundraising wave materializes -- whether SpaceX's reported five bond issues (targeting at least US$25 billion), Nvidia's US$25 billion corporate bonds, the OpenAI and Anthropic IPO filings and SK hynix's ADR plan are realized, and their subsequent impact on market money momentum (all currently at the plan/report stage and per an analyst's judgment)

同事件・三視角 / Three Perspectives on the Same Event / 同一イベント・三つの視点

Internal citation chain

Published ANK-Docs cited in this document: - ANK-2026-07-03-002 (Taiwan equity flows' "one-day reversal": foreign net buying of NT$32.376 billion on July 1 ended six straight selling sessions, followed by net selling of NT$89.046 billion on July 2; ETFs as the two-way "focus of adjustment") → cited as chapter two of the correction chain: that card records the back-and-forth flows of June 30-July 2, and this card continues the chain with foreign investors selling another NT$77.782 billion on July 3 as the market shifts into the wait-and-see "box-range consolidation under tight liquidity." - ANK-2026-07-02-001 (Taiwan's AI rally, "a raging bull meets a gray rhino": two SOX single-day slumps within a week; after a record 17,162-point first-half surge, Fubon names high leverage the biggest risk) → cited as chapter one, the warning-side record: that card documents the SOX single-day slumps of June 26 (5.29%) and July 1 (6.27%) U.S. Eastern time, and this card juxtaposes the further 5.44% fall on July 2, 2026, U.S. Eastern time (CNA #1309435) -- a cross-card juxtaposition of existing records, not a new statistic.

Sources

1. [CNA #1327042] CNA, "法人：資金緊俏與台積電7/16法說 台股可能箱型整理", 2026-07-05. https://www.cna.com.tw/news/afe/202607050046.aspx 2. [CNA #1336079] CNA, "美股休市 台股區間震盪留意月線支撐", 2026-07-06. https://www.cna.com.tw/news/afe/202607060018.aspx 3. [CNA #1336450] CNA, "八貫第2季營收9.95億創高 接單已滿載到10月底", 2026-07-06. https://www.cna.com.tw/news/afe/202607060029.aspx 4. [CNA #1327088] CNA, "台積電法說會7/16登場 聚焦全年成長目標和資本支出", 2026-07-05. https://www.cna.com.tw/news/afe/202607050077.aspx 5. [CNA #1309435] CNA, "外資賣超777.82億元 砍群創逾5萬張最多", 2026-07-03. https://www.cna.com.tw/news/afe/202607030249.aspx 6. [CNA #1308624] CNA, "台股盤中震盪逾千點 終場翻紅收高上漲36點", 2026-07-03. https://www.cna.com.tw/news/afe/202607030125.aspx 7. [ANK-2026-07-03-002] Takenouchi Rin, "Taiwan equity flows' 'one-day reversal': foreign net buying of NT$32.376 billion on July 1 ended six straight selling sessions, followed by net selling of NT$89.046 billion on July 2; ETFs as the two-way 'focus of adjustment'", 2026-07-03. https://ainews.idaeo.ai/en/idaeo/ANK-2026-07-03-002 8. [ANK-2026-07-02-001] Takenouchi Rin, "Taiwan's AI rally, 'a raging bull meets a gray rhino': two SOX single-day slumps within a week (5.29% on June 26, 6.27% on July 1); after a record 17,162-point first-half surge, Fubon names high leverage the biggest risk", 2026-07-02. https://ainews.idaeo.ai/en/idaeo/ANK-2026-07-02-001

📊 引用級事實單元（F-Units）

Veteran analyst Wang Chao-li, in a July 5, 2026 CNA report: SpaceX listed on Nasdaq on June 12 with market value breaking above US$2 trillion; OpenAI and Anthropic plan to file for IPOs this year or next; SK hynix plans to issue ADRs in the U.S.; SpaceX is reported to plan five bond issues targeting at least US$25 billion; Nvidia will also issue corporate bonds to raise US$25 billion -- heavyweight companies listing and issuing debt one after another will weigh on market money momentum; U.S. markets were closed on the 3rd for the Independence Day observed holiday, and the Taiwan index futures night session rose 116 points in choppy trading
F-001 · Confidence: medium · Basis: news_aggregation CNA #1327042 Grade C · 媒體報導（非企業審查） report of 2026-07-05; SpaceX listing on 2026-06-12
Wang Chao-li's expectation: Taiwan's economy is set for strong growth this year, and with TSMC's investor conference on July 16, 2026 the market's swings should stay relatively small, but with money momentum insufficient Taiwan stocks can hardly escape the sector-rotation pattern (electronics fell on the 3rd while non-electronics were strong); Taiwan stocks may hold a box-range consolidation pattern in the short term, with the monthly moving average at 45,537 points as key support
F-002 · Confidence: medium · Basis: news_aggregation CNA #1327042 Grade C · 媒體報導（非企業審查） report of 2026-07-05
July 6, 2026 CNA report: U.S. markets closed for U.S. Independence Day; Taiwan stocks turned from losses to gains on the 3rd, up 36.46 points to close at 46,780.62, with a cumulative gain of 2,208.86 points last week; with no U.S. lead the market watches tech investor conferences and a biotech exhibition; Taiwan stocks have been repeatedly testing the monthly moving average around 45,623 points as support and the monthly line remains the bull-bear indicator, with range-bound trading expected this week; TSMC's investor conference on July 16 will be the market's short-term marker
F-003 · Confidence: medium · Basis: news_aggregation CNA #1336079 Grade C · 媒體報導（非企業審查） report of 2026-07-06; market data as of the 2026-07-03 Taipei close
On July 3, 2026, Taiwan stocks opened lower and closed higher: an intraday low of 45,880.69 and a high of 46,948.83 -- an up-and-down swing of more than a thousand points -- with the close up 36.46 points at 46,780.62 after turning from losses to gains, and turnover of NT$1.01557 trillion; the textile, paper and shipping sector indices rose more than 3% and the plastics, cable, rubber and automobile sector indices rose more than 2%, the main force behind the gain; TSMC closed at NT$2,445, down NT$20, dragging the index by about 158 points, MediaTek and ASE Technology Holding closed lower, Delta Electronics and Hon Hai closed higher after choppy trading, and the electronics sector index fell 0.27%
F-004 · Confidence: high · Basis: news_aggregation CNA #1308624 Grade C · 媒體報導（非企業審查） 2026-07-03 (Taipei close)
On July 3, 2026, foreign and mainland Chinese investors net sold NT$77.782 billion of Taiwan stocks, proprietary dealers net sold NT$3.259 billion and investment trusts net bought NT$7.596 billion, for a combined institutional net sell of NT$73.445 billion; per Taiwan Stock Exchange data, Innolux topped the foreign sell list at 57,891 units, with the rest of the top-10 sells including the active Uni-President Global Innovation, the active Yuanta AI New Economy, AUO, the Yuanta Taiwan 50, ASE Technology Holding, Formosa Plastics, Powerchip, Taiwan Glass and Macronix, and the top-10 buys including Taishin Shinkong Financial, UMC, China Petrochemical Development, the active Uni-President Taiwan Equity Growth, KGI Financial, Taiwan Business Bank, E.SUN Financial, Eternal Materials, Cheng Shin Rubber and China Steel; Wang Chao-li notes insufficient market money momentum with U.S. and Taiwan stocks in rotation -- the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 594.83 points on the 2nd to a record close of 52,900.07 while the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index sank 727.06 points, or 5.44%; Taiwan's better-than-expected economic growth plus TSMC's July 16 investor conference are the main reasons Taiwan stocks stay relatively strong versus international markets
F-005 · Confidence: high · Basis: news_aggregation CNA #1309435 Grade C · 媒體報導（非企業審查） 2026-07-03 (Taipei close); the Dow and SOX figures are the U.S. Eastern-time 2026-07-02 session (per the report's context)
TSMC already raised its full-year U.S.-dollar revenue growth target to more than 30% at the April investor conference, and whether it is raised further at the July 16, 2026 conference is closely watched; TSMC said at the April conference that 2026 capital expenditure would come in near the upper end of the US$52 billion-US$56 billion range, and whether it is lifted is the market focus that will sway TSMC supply-chain performance -- Liu Pei-chen, director of the industry economics database at the Taiwan Institute of Economic Research (TIER), says strong AI-chip demand is the main driver of TSMC's growth
F-006 · Confidence: medium · Basis: news_aggregation CNA #1327088 Grade C · 媒體報導（非企業審查） report of 2026-07-05; "more than 30%" and the capex range are TSMC's April 2026 conference wording
TSMC's Q1 2026 gross margin climbed to 66.2% and Q2 is guided at 65.5%-67.5%; Liu Pei-chen says the market watches whether the quarterly gross margin can challenge the 70% mark; with advanced-process and advanced-packaging capacity short of demand and costs such as electricity rising, TSMC intends to raise prices; Chairman and President C.C. Wei said at the June 2026 shareholders' meeting it will take "a very long time" to satisfy client demand; U.S. President Trump said in a recent interview that Taiwan is expanding the scale of the fab under construction in Arizona by 1x (i.e., doubling it), and progress at TSMC's Japan and Germany fabs is also watched
F-007 · Confidence: medium · Basis: news_aggregation CNA #1327088 Grade C · 媒體報導（非企業審查） report of 2026-07-05; the 66.2% gross margin is Q1 2026 and the Q2 range is TSMC's guidance
Hon Hai on July 5, 2026 reported self-compiled June revenue of NT$821.8 billion: down 4.38% month-on-month yet still a record for any June, up 52.11% year-on-year; Q2 revenue was NT$2.5133 trillion, a record for any second quarter; Hon Hai expects overall Q3 operations to grow quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year
F-008 · Confidence: high · Basis: news_aggregation CNA #1336079 Grade C · 媒體報導（非企業審查） June 2026 single month and Q2 self-compiled revenue; announced 2026-07-05
Largan's self-compiled June 2026 revenue was NT$3.712 billion, a 13-month low: down 19.18% month-on-month and 10.46% year-on-year; Q2 revenue was NT$13.665 billion, down 12.09% quarter-on-quarter; first-half revenue totaled NT$29.209 billion, up 11.26% year-on-year; Largan says July pull-in momentum looks somewhat better than June's
F-009 · Confidence: high · Basis: news_aggregation CNA #1336079 Grade C · 媒體報導（非企業審查） June 2026 single month, Q2 and first-half self-compiled revenue; report of 2026-07-06
TPU maker CCI Yilan on July 6, 2026 reported Q2 revenue of NT$995 million: up 40.61% year-on-year and 8.5% quarter-on-quarter, a record high for a second straight quarter; first-half revenue totaled NT$1.912 billion, up 28.64% from a year earlier; the company says its order book is solid, capacity is nearly fully booked through the end of October, visibility on long-term defense, outdoor and aerospace orders has clearly improved this year, and some orders extend as far out as Q3 2027
F-010 · Confidence: high · Basis: news_aggregation CNA #1336450 Grade C · 媒體報導（非企業審查） Q2 and first-half 2026 self-compiled revenue; announced 2026-07-06
CCI Yilan's June 2026 revenue was NT$308 million, up 40.14% year-on-year and down 8.6% from May; the company attributes the dip mainly to shipment-timing adjustments by some outdoor-product clients, while steady growth in medical and defense shipments kept monthly revenue above NT$300 million; defense revenue in June rose 43% from May, medical rose 16% month-on-month, and outdoor fell 16% from May but rose 64% from a year earlier; in the first half, outdoor products made up about 61% of total revenue (first-half revenue up 38% year-on-year) and medical about 19% (first-half up 36% year-on-year)
F-011 · Confidence: high · Basis: news_aggregation CNA #1336450 Grade C · 媒體報導（非企業審查） June 2026 single month and first-half self-compiled revenue; announced 2026-07-06

❓ FAQ

What is chapter three of the Taiwan stock correction, "box-range consolidation under tight liquidity"?

It refers to the July 3-6, 2026 pattern: selling pressure persisted (foreign investors net sold NT$77.782 billion on July 3), yet the index moved only mildly and turned from losses to gains to close at 46,780.62, and institutional investors framed the short term as "box-range consolidation." The reason is tight liquidity -- heavyweight companies listing and issuing debt one after another weigh on market money momentum -- while the market waits for TSMC's July 16 investor conference to set the direction. "Chapter three" is this site's editorial label, continuing chapter one (ANK-2026-07-02-001, the warning side) and chapter two (ANK-2026-07-03-002, the foreign investors' "one-day reversal"); "tight liquidity" and "box-range consolidation" are the sources' wording. Wang Chao-li expects Taiwan stocks to hold a box-range pattern in the short term with the monthly moving average as key support; the July 6 report likewise expects range-bound trading this week -- all institutional expectations, not settled conclusions (CNA #1327042, CNA #1336079, CNA #1309435).

Why is market liquidity said to be tight? What does the SpaceX listing have to do with Taiwan stocks?

Veteran analyst Wang Chao-li's rundown: SpaceX listed on Nasdaq on June 12, 2026 with market value breaking above US$2 trillion; OpenAI and Anthropic plan to file for IPOs this year or next; SK hynix plans to issue ADRs in the U.S.; SpaceX is reported to plan five bond issues targeting at least US$25 billion; Nvidia will also issue corporate bonds to raise US$25 billion -- heavyweight companies listing and issuing debt one after another will all weigh on market money momentum. His market-level evidence is the U.S. "divergence": on July 2, 2026, U.S. Eastern time the Dow rose 594.83 points to a record 52,900.07 while the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index sank 727.06 points, or 5.44%, with insufficient money momentum as the key. Note: the bond issues are "reported" plans, and the IPOs and ADRs are "planned" -- none realized; this is an analyst's judgment, not a settled conclusion (CNA #1327042, CNA #1309435).

What happened to Taiwan stocks on July 3, 2026? How much did foreign investors sell?

On July 3 the market opened lower and swung between an intraday low of 45,880.69 and a high of 46,948.83 -- more than a thousand points -- before closing up 36.46 points at 46,780.62 after turning from losses to gains, with turnover of NT$1.01557 trillion; foreign and mainland Chinese investors net sold NT$77.782 billion (Innolux topped the sell list at 57,891 units), proprietary dealers net sold NT$3.259 billion and investment trusts net bought NT$7.596 billion, for a combined institutional net sell of NT$73.445 billion. Non-electronics held up the close on July 3, 2026: textile, paper and shipping sector indices rose more than 3%, and plastics, cable, rubber and automobiles rose more than 2%; TSMC fell NT$20 to NT$2,445, dragging the index by about 158 points, and the electronics sector index fell 0.27% (CNA #1308624, CNA #1309435).

Is the monthly-moving-average support 45,537 points or about 45,623 points?

Both are source figures, and this card lays them out as-is without adjudicating: in the July 5 CNA report, Wang Chao-li put the monthly moving average at 45,537 points as key support; the July 6 CNA report records the market repeatedly testing the monthly moving average around 45,623 points, with the monthly line remaining the bull-bear indicator. The two figures belong to reports on different dates, and the sources do not explain the difference. Like "box-range consolidation" and "range-bound trading," the monthly-average support is an institutional expectation and technical description, not an accomplished fact; the actual path must be verified by subsequent trading (CNA #1327042, CNA #1336079).

What should be watched at TSMC's July 16 investor conference?

Per Liu Pei-chen, director of the industry economics database at the Taiwan Institute of Economic Research (TIER), three focal points: the full-year U.S.-dollar revenue growth target -- already raised to more than 30% at the April conference, and whether it goes higher; 2026 capital expenditure -- the April wording was near the upper end of the US$52 billion-US$56 billion range, and any lift would sway the supply chain; gross margin and pricing -- Q1 gross margin was 66.2% and Q2 is guided at 65.5%-67.5%, the market watches whether it can challenge the 70% mark, plus price hikes and expansion plans amid advanced-process and advanced-packaging shortages. As backdrop, TSMC is expanding in Taiwan and the U.S. simultaneously; C.C. Wei said at the June 2026 shareholders' meeting it will take "a very long time" to meet client demand; Trump said in an interview that Taiwan is expanding the Arizona fab under construction by 1x, i.e., doubling it (a relayed interview remark, not a TSMC announcement); progress in Japan and Germany is also watched. All are pre-conference watch points to be verified after the conference (CNA #1327088).

How did Hon Hai's and Largan's June self-compiled revenue turn out?

Two rhythms. Hon Hai: June revenue of NT$821.8 billion, down 4.38% month-on-month yet still a record for any June, up 52.11% year-on-year; Q2 revenue of NT$2.5133 trillion, a record for any second quarter, with Q3 expected to grow quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year. Largan: June revenue of NT$3.712 billion, a 13-month low, down 19.18% month-on-month and 10.46% year-on-year; Q2 revenue of NT$13.665 billion, down 12.09% quarter-on-quarter; first-half revenue of NT$29.209 billion, up 11.26% year-on-year, and the company says July pull-in momentum looks somewhat better than June's. Both are company self-compiled (self-published) figures; Hon Hai's Q3 outlook and Largan's July view are company expectations, not settled conclusions (CNA #1336079).

Who is CCI Yilan and why did its Q2 revenue hit a record?

CCI Yilan (TWSE ticker 1342; English short name per the Taiwan Stock Exchange registry) is a TPU (thermoplastic polyurethane) maker; its Q2 2026 revenue was NT$995 million, up 40.61% year-on-year and 8.5% quarter-on-quarter, a record high for a second straight quarter; first-half revenue was NT$1.912 billion, up 28.64% year-on-year. The company says its order book is solid, capacity is nearly fully booked through the end of October, visibility on long-term defense, outdoor and aerospace orders has clearly improved, and some orders extend as far out as Q3 2027. By mix, outdoor products made up about 61% of first-half revenue (up 38% year-on-year) and medical about 19% (up 36% year-on-year), the two pillars; June single-month revenue was NT$308 million, up 40.14% year-on-year but down 8.6% from May (shipment-timing adjustments by some outdoor clients), with defense up 43% from May, medical up 16% month-on-month, and outdoor down 16% from May but up 64% from a year earlier. "Nearly full" and "visibility" are the company's wording (CNA #1336450).

What comes next?

The observation points the sources point to: first, TSMC's July 16, 2026 investor conference (the market's short-term marker) -- the actual wording on the growth target, capex, gross margin and pricing; second, whether the monthly-moving-average support holds (two figures: 45,537 points in the July 5 report / about 45,623 points in the July 6 report) and whether the "box-range / range-bound" expectation plays out; third, whether the heavyweight fundraising wave (SpaceX's reported bond plan of at least US$25 billion, Nvidia's US$25 billion corporate bonds, the OpenAI and Anthropic IPO filings, SK hynix's ADR) materializes and how it keeps affecting money momentum. All of the above are observation axes flagged by institutions/analysts and planned events, not this card's forecasts (CNA #1327042, CNA #1336079, CNA #1327088). ---

🧠 編輯判斷（J-Units）

The structure of "box-range consolidation under tight liquidity" -- global heavyweights listing and issuing debt one after another (SpaceX's market value breaking above US$2 trillion, planned raises of US$25 billion each by SpaceX and Nvidia, among others) weigh on money momentum, matching the U.S. market's "divergence" (a record Dow close on July 2, 2026, U.S. Eastern time while the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 5.44%) and Taiwan's "small index moves, fast sector rotation" (electronics weak and non-electronics strong on July 3, with a positive close after a thousand-point intraday swing), with the monthly moving average as the bull-bear line -- a synthesis of Wang Chao-li's and other institutional views plus market facts, not this card's forecast
Confidence: medium
The three chapters connect -- chapter one, the warning side (two SOX single-day slumps of 5.29% and 6.27% within a week, plus the high-leverage warning; see ANK-2026-07-02-001); chapter two, the foreign investors' "one-day reversal" (net buying of NT$32.376 billion on July 1, net selling of NT$89.046 billion on July 2; see ANK-2026-07-03-002); chapter three, the wait-and-see box (foreign investors net sold another NT$77.782 billion on July 3, yet the index turned positive to close at 46,780.62): selling pressure and index resilience coexist, and TSMC's July 16 investor conference becomes the short-term anchor all three chapters point to -- the chapter framing is this site's editorial label, and cross-card figures are juxtapositions of existing records, not new statistics
Confidence: medium
Fundamental divergence inside the box -- self-compiled figures over the same days show three rhythms: Hon Hai's Q2 revenue of NT$2.5133 trillion is a record for any second quarter (June up 52.11% year-on-year), Largan's June revenue of NT$3.712 billion is a 13-month low, and CCI Yilan's Q2 of NT$995 million is a second straight record quarter with capacity nearly full through the end of October; the sources do not link the three to the index's moves, and this card lists them side by side without inferring causality -- the company-level divergence runs parallel in time to the "sector rotation" seen in the market, and whether they are related is not stated in the sources
Confidence: medium

🔮 待驗證假設（P-Units）

The actual wording at TSMC's July 16, 2026 investor conference -- whether the full-year U.S.-dollar revenue growth target (April wording: more than 30%) is raised again, whether 2026 capex (near the upper end of the US$52 billion-US$56 billion range) is lifted, where Q2 gross margin lands (guided 65.5%-67.5%) and whether it challenges the 70% mark, plus pricing and overseas expansion -- to be verified against post-conference content
Status: open
Whether the monthly-average support and the box expectation hold -- whether the two monthly-moving-average figures (45,537 points in the July 5 report / about 45,623 points in the July 6 report) hold as support, and how the institutional "box-range / range-bound" expectation compares with subsequent actual trading
Status: open
How far the heavyweight fundraising wave materializes -- whether SpaceX's reported five bond issues (targeting at least US$25 billion), Nvidia's US$25 billion corporate bonds, the OpenAI and Anthropic IPO filings and SK hynix's ADR plan are realized, and their subsequent impact on market money momentum (all currently at the plan/report stage and per an analyst's judgment)
Status: open

Verification Record

Editorial selection, human-supervised — Takenouchi Rin (Editor-in-Chief)

Cross-verified by multiple AI models.

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